Can Incentivize defy the handicapper in Melbourne Cup for the home team?

21-October-2021
21-October-2021 12:46
in General
by Russell Smith

Trueshan's exploits this summer and Alan King's growing presence on the Flat scene encourage one to believe his forays abroad may soon extend well beyond Punchestown or Deauville to the great racing events further afield. Ever since Bill Watts took Teleprompter to win the Arlington Million back in the eighties, the leading trainers under both codes have become more adventurous in their travel plans, seeking international riches from well-endowed races all over the world. 

It's nearly November, which means one thing to any follower of horse racing: the Melbourne Cup. Until Vintage Crop broke the hoodoo in 1993, the race was the sole domain of southern hemisphere horses, but that has changed dramatically, with three of the past four winners from Europe, including last year's Twilight Payment, trained by Joseph O'Brien. Odds for the Melbourne Cup now reflect the strength of the European challenge year on year.

This autumn's renewal on Tuesday November 5th will stage another leg in Australian racing's comeback trail from the pandemic. Just 10,000 will be permitted to attend, the lowest public attendance ever, but an improvement on the behind closed doors affair that welcomed back jockey Jye McNeil in 2020. Expect the usual Australian TV audience of 1.4m to increase dramatically as Aussies enjoy their Melbourne Cup holiday at home instead. 

As to who's going to win, Incentivise has been asked to carry an extra 1.5 kilograms in his bid to complete the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double. The Aussie-bred horse has the best price but will have to make magic happen once more to claim victory.

After winning the Caulfield Cup earlier this year, Incentivise will have to pull another stellar run to complete the double. The Peter Moody-trained horse was the clear favourite heading into the November 2 meeting, but after being assessed and hit with an extra 1.5kg handicap, the competition just became that much tighter.

Incentivize wins the Caulfield Cup earlier this year

Coming off eight wins in a row, Incentivise, an Aussie horse, wasted no time in imposing dominance in the Caulfield Cup on Sunday. The five-year-old bay gelding made it an even more impressive victory by working hard to overcome being drawn on the wide outside. Ridden brilliantly by Brett Prebble, Incentivise pulled clear of the closest competition, Nonconformist, at the 800m mark, and then hit overdrive at the 250m mark to win by a full three and a half lengths. That made it nine straight wins for Moody and Incentivise but also drew the attention of the handicapper.

The extra 1.5kg will take Incentivise to 57kg, and make the expected rival Spanish Mission, an even stronger challenger. According to Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter, Incentivise was always going to have to battle hard to win the Melbourne Cup and that the re-handicap to 57kg was still the right assessment. 

Spanish Mission will also be racing at 57kg, in great form with six wins in the last 18 starts. A year older than Incentivise, Spanish Mission stands above the rest of the pack of contenders and will be stern competition for Incentivise at that weight.

If you're a stats man, Incentivise is looking to beat history as well. Out of the 11 horses that have ever accomplished the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double, only one has done it at 57kg - Riding Fast. So, while it is not an impossible feat, Incentivise will have to be beat the statistics to come out with top honours.

However, put nothing past the horse that just enjoyed of the most comprehensive wins in the Caulfield Cup in recent memory, despite unfavourable conditions. Incentivise is not new to adversity and may just once again thrive in it better than expected. 

And when it comes down to it, there's no better incentive than to win Australia's greatest race. Is Trueshan the horse to take Alan King down under?

Next Event

When?

Sunday December 12th Barbury International First Race 11.30am

Sunday February 13th Vine & Craven First race 11.30am

Sunday April 10th Tedworth First Race 1.15pm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where?

Barbury, 3m N of Marlborough, off A346, Jn 15 M4

 

Latest News

Can Incentivize defy the handicapper in Melbourne Cup for the home team?

21-October-2021
21-October-2021 12:46
in General
by Russell Smith

Trueshan's exploits this summer and Alan King's growing presence on the Flat scene encourage one to believe his forays abroad may soon extend well beyond Punchestown or Deauville to the great racing events further afield. Ever since Bill Watts took Teleprompter to win the Arlington Million back in the eighties, the leading trainers under both codes have become more adventurous in their travel plans, seeking international riches from well-endowed races all over the world. 

It's nearly November, which means one thing to any follower of horse racing: the Melbourne Cup. Until Vintage Crop broke the hoodoo in 1993, the race was the sole domain of southern hemisphere horses, but that has changed dramatically, with three of the past four winners from Europe, including last year's Twilight Payment, trained by Joseph O'Brien. Odds for the Melbourne Cup now reflect the strength of the European challenge year on year.

This autumn's renewal on Tuesday November 5th will stage another leg in Australian racing's comeback trail from the pandemic. Just 10,000 will be permitted to attend, the lowest public attendance ever, but an improvement on the behind closed doors affair that welcomed back jockey Jye McNeil in 2020. Expect the usual Australian TV audience of 1.4m to increase dramatically as Aussies enjoy their Melbourne Cup holiday at home instead. 

As to who's going to win, Incentivise has been asked to carry an extra 1.5 kilograms in his bid to complete the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double. The Aussie-bred horse has the best price but will have to make magic happen once more to claim victory.

After winning the Caulfield Cup earlier this year, Incentivise will have to pull another stellar run to complete the double. The Peter Moody-trained horse was the clear favourite heading into the November 2 meeting, but after being assessed and hit with an extra 1.5kg handicap, the competition just became that much tighter.

Incentivize wins the Caulfield Cup earlier this year

Coming off eight wins in a row, Incentivise, an Aussie horse, wasted no time in imposing dominance in the Caulfield Cup on Sunday. The five-year-old bay gelding made it an even more impressive victory by working hard to overcome being drawn on the wide outside. Ridden brilliantly by Brett Prebble, Incentivise pulled clear of the closest competition, Nonconformist, at the 800m mark, and then hit overdrive at the 250m mark to win by a full three and a half lengths. That made it nine straight wins for Moody and Incentivise but also drew the attention of the handicapper.

The extra 1.5kg will take Incentivise to 57kg, and make the expected rival Spanish Mission, an even stronger challenger. According to Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter, Incentivise was always going to have to battle hard to win the Melbourne Cup and that the re-handicap to 57kg was still the right assessment. 

Spanish Mission will also be racing at 57kg, in great form with six wins in the last 18 starts. A year older than Incentivise, Spanish Mission stands above the rest of the pack of contenders and will be stern competition for Incentivise at that weight.

If you're a stats man, Incentivise is looking to beat history as well. Out of the 11 horses that have ever accomplished the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double, only one has done it at 57kg - Riding Fast. So, while it is not an impossible feat, Incentivise will have to be beat the statistics to come out with top honours.

However, put nothing past the horse that just enjoyed of the most comprehensive wins in the Caulfield Cup in recent memory, despite unfavourable conditions. Incentivise is not new to adversity and may just once again thrive in it better than expected. 

And when it comes down to it, there's no better incentive than to win Australia's greatest race. Is Trueshan the horse to take Alan King down under?

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